Will Donald Trump say “Gun” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gun” 5+ times at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2024 (60%), most recently on Nov 4, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Gun 5+ times
- Probability
- 48% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…wants to pack the Supreme Court. He wants to take away your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for…
…us. We shoot at them because right down the barrel of the gun or whatever launched whatever weapon that No, it's unbeliev Think of it.…
…She's you. She's solid. She's great. So Annie Andrews is also an anti-gun extremist who endorsed a ban on the most popular firearms in America.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | Gun 5+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Gun 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Gun 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Gun 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Gun 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Gun 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gun” 5+ times at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 23, 2024 (60%), most recently on Nov 4, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gun 5+ times” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gun 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gun-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gun%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP