Will Donald Trump say “War” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “War” 3+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
War 3+ times
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…know, it's been through the mill. Looks like it went through the war. Actually, it did actually. So, I took the doors. I'm a big…
…of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in Venezuela. One of the I mean if you got to take…
…from American families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people, by…
…You know, there's some things you need. If you ever have a war, you can't say, "Let's see. Let's get some steel from China." You…
…say that from day one of my administration, we've waged an unprecedented war on corruption and fraud, and will not let our country be looted…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2025 | War 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 17, 2025 | War 3+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “War 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “War” 3+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “War 3+ times” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘War 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/war-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=war%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP