Will Donald Trump say “Historic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Historic” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 14, 2025 (60%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Historic
- Probability
- 48% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…great state of Florida. You need them. And today we're also taking historic action to support an important industry here in the shores of the…
…okay, the president Republicans most admire. It's Donald Trump. This is a historic comparison. A majority of Republicans say 53% say he is the Republican…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…They spend it before they get it. In August, I signed a historic national security memorandum unleashing the incredible talent, tools and resources of our…
…be in big trouble with a B. 22 billion dollars. I impose historic tariffs. One of my all-time favorite words. It used to be my…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Historic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Historic” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 14, 2025 (60%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Historic” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Historic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/historic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=historic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP