# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · debate 2024-09-10 · 20 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate · as_of 2026-10-27T03:26:59Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-09-10 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-at-the-debate (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market group over what Donald Trump will say at his debate with Kamala Harris scheduled for September 10, 2024.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Border Czar	border czar	1	6	6	1	YYYYYY	0.68	hist	yes
Tampon	tampon	1	9	8	0.89	YYYnYYYYY	0.67	hist	no
Marxist	marxist	1	4	4	1	YYYY	0.64	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.61	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	8	6	0.75	nnYYYYYY	0.58	hist	no
Abortion	abortion	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.55	hist	yes
McDonald's	mcdonald	1	1	1	1	Y	0.54	hist	no
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	1	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.53	hist	no
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.52	hist	no
Border 15+ times	border#15	15	2	1	0.5	nY	0.49	hist	no
China 3+ times	china#3	3	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.49	hist	yes
Elon Musk	elon musk	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.49	hist	no
MAGA 3+ times	maga#3	3	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.49	hist	yes
Alien 5+ times	alien#5	5	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.45	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.32	hist	no
Cat	cat	1	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Epstein	epstein	1	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Fraud	fraud	1	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Haitian	haitian	1	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Springfield	springfield	1	0	0			0.49	prior	yes