Will Donald Trump say “Alien” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Alien” 5+ times at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 29, 2024 (25%), most recently on Aug 30, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 debates have transcripts, it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Alien 5+ times
- Probability
- 48% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Court of the United States, giving free health care to all illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to…
…deadly sanctuary cities. He voted to give lavish welfare benefits to illegal aliens and even wrote a memo giving illegal alien criminals instructions on how…
…through, totally unchecked, totally unvetted. In the past 17 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. ZERO, RIGHT? Remember the way…
…actually, well over 100, many, many over 100. We kicked 275,000 illegal aliens off of Social Security. And Frank has been amazing in Social Security,…
…invited. Unless they have permission. In the past 16 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. And that's done by some…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2024 | Alien 5+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Alien 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Alien 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Alien 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Alien 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Alien” 5+ times at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 29, 2024 (25%), most recently on Aug 30, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Alien 5+ times” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Alien 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/alien-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=alien%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP