# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-05-03 (settled) · 23 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-april-27-may-3 · as_of 2026-10-25T18:16:19Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-03 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-april-27-may-3 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Landslide	landslide	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
Poll / Polling	poll|polling	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
POTUS	potus	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Midterm	midterm	8	5	0.62	nYYnnYYY	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hoax / Scam	hoax|scam	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
TrumpRX	trumprx	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Hell	hell	31	13	0.42	nnnnnnYYnY	1	1	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Book	book	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Blockade	blockade	9	4	0.44	nnYYnYnnY	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	50	24	0.48	YnnnnYnnnn	1	1	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
UFO	ufo	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Third rate	third rate	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.33	hist	0	0	no	1
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	137	54	0.39	nYnnnnYYYn	1	1	0.26	hist	0	0	no	1
Make Iran Great Again / MIGA	make iran great again|miga	4	0	0	nnnn	1	0	0.24	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	353	38	0.11	nnYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.21	hist	0	0	no	1
Free Tina Peters	free tina peter	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.19	hist	0	0	no	1
Ammo / Ammunition	ammo|ammunition	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Franklin Graham	franklin graham	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
I love King / I love the King	i love king|i love the king	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Prince Harry	prince harry	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Prosecute / Prosecution	prosecute|prosecution	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Triumphal Arc / Triumphal Arch	triumphal arc|triumphal arch	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Trust Trump / Trust in Trump	trust in trump|trust trump	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	0	0	no	1