Will “Japan” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Japan” appeared on the NYT front page on 3 of 9 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 2, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Japan
- Probability
- 33% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. Seek Relief in Japan and South Korea
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Japan |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Japan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does “Japan” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Japan” appeared on the NYT front page on 3 of 9 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 2, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 19, 2026.
- What is the probability “Japan” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Japan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/japan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=japan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP