As of Oct 24, 2026, “Deal” appeared on the NYT front page on 4 of 5 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (80%), most recently on Aug 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 7.
49%from settlement history only · n=5counts: anyone
Last 10
4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes
How often does “Deal” appear on the NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Deal” appeared on the NYT front page on 4 of 5 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (80%), most recently on Aug 3, 2026.
What is the probability “Deal” appears on the NYT front page next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Citeparrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/deal (CC BY 4.0)
Polymarket