Home News NYT front page Israel Will “Israel ” appear on the next NYT front page? As of Oct 24, 2026, “Israel” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 2 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 7.
48% from settlement history only · n=2 counts: anyone
Last 10 2/2 Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
Streak said the last 2 times
Counts anyone Markets Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:45 UTC
Where it was said quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance – Aug 16 8/16 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16): not listed – Aug 23 8/23 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23): not listed – Aug 30 8/30 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30): not listed – Sep 6 9/6 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6): not listed – Sep 13 9/13 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13): not listed – Sep 20 9/20 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20): not listed – Sep 27 9/27 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27): not listed – Oct 4 10/4 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4): not listed – Oct 11 10/11 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11): not listed – Oct 18 10/18 What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18): not listed Latest quotes from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Wednesday, October 14 other NYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026 In transcript Oct. 7 Attack Changed Israel , but Not Its Politics
Thursday, October 8 other NYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026 In transcript Remembering the Victims in Israel
Thursday, October 1 other NYT front-page headlines, September 28–October 4, 2026 · Oct 4, 2026 In transcript Passengers and Crew Save Plane to Israel After Attack
Friday, September 25 other NYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026 In transcript At U.N., He Underlines Threats to Israel and Assails Mamdani as Many Walk Out
Wednesday, September 16 other NYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026 · Sep 20, 2026 In transcript U.S. Approves Israel Arms Sale
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed
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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed
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Every settled listing newest first · 2 shown Every settled listing of this word, newest first Date Listed as Venue Result Aug 2, 2026 Israel Yes May 3, 2026 Israel Yes
Questions How often does “Israel” appear on the NYT front page? As of Oct 24, 2026, “Israel” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 2 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 2, 2026. What is the probability “Israel” appears on the NYT front page next time? 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice. Who has to say it for the market to count? Under the next market's rule: anyone. Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Israel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/israel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=israel#parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP
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