# Jerome Powell (jerome-powell) · speech 2025-10-14 · 19 words · P p:what-will-powell-say-during-his-speech-on-october-14 · as_of 2026-10-26T16:23:10Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-10-14 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2024-11-07..2025-09-17 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-powell-say-during-his-speech-on-october-14 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Pandemic	pandemic	1	3	3	1	YYY	8	8	0.69	hist	yes
Employment / Unemployment 15+ times	employment|unemployment#15	15	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.59	hist	yes
Payroll	payroll	1	1	1	1	Y	8	8	0.59	hist	yes
Beige Book	beige book	1	2	1	0.5	nY	8	1	0.3	hist	yes
Good Afternoon	good afternoon	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	8	8	0.29	hist	no
Money	money	1	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.28	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	8	4	0.27	hist	yes
Rate Cut	rate cut	1	1	0	0	n	8	5	0.2	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	1	0.13	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	4	0	0	nnnn	8	2	0.12	hist	no
Consumer Spending	consumer spending	1	0	0			8	8	0.32	prior	no
Inflation 25+ times	inflation#25	25	0	0			8	8	0.32	prior	no
Inflation 35+ times	inflation#35	35	0	0			8	8	0.32	prior	no
Labor Market 10+ times	labor market#10	10	0	0			8	7	0.32	prior	no
Pardon Me / Sorry	pardon me|sorry	1	0	0			8	8	0.32	prior	yes
Percent 10+ times	percent#10	10	0	0			8	8	0.32	prior	no
Recession / Depression	depression|recession	1	0	0			8	3	0.32	prior	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	0	0			8	0	0.32	prior	yes
Tariff 6+ times	tariff#6	6	0	0			8	6	0.32	prior	no