Will Jerome Powell say “Payroll”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Payroll” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Payroll
- Probability
- 60% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…changed little in recent months. Job gains have remained low. Total nonfarm payrolls declined at an average pace of 22,000 per month over the last…
…market has continued. Unemployment is now up three-tenths from June through September. Payroll jobs averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there’s an overstatement…
…say, then again, we don’t have—we didn’t get the September employment report, payroll report, but we do get—we look at the unemployment insurance claims, initial…
…remains little changed over the past year at a relatively low level. Payroll job gains have slowed significantly to a pace of just 29,000 per…
…housing sector remains weak. In the labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged 150,000 per month over the past three months. The…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Payroll”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Payroll” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025 (100%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Payroll” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Payroll’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/payroll (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=payroll · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP