Will Jerome Powell say “Summer”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Summer” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 22, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Summer
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…was 4.4 percent in February and has changed little since late last summer. Job gains have remained low. A good part of the slowing in…
Okay. Thanks. BIS wrote a paper last summer which concluded that global investors were hedging their dollar exposures, in ways that previously they hadn’t, because…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…was really solid at that point. So what happened is, over last summer—summer of ’24—inflation came down and the labor market began to show real…
…Strategy and are on track to wrap up any modifications by late summer. The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and…
…to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy by late summer. After that, we will consider enhancements to our suite of communications tools,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2025 | Summer |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Summer”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Summer” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Summer” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Summer’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/summer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=summer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP