Will Kevin Warsh say “War / Iran”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “War / Iran” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 22, 2026.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
War / Iran
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I don’t believe that either part of our mandate is generally at war with the other part. I do not believe that price stability and…
…and downs. But is this mainly driven by energy prices and the Iran war at this point, or do you have any concerns about underlying…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | War / Iran |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “War / Iran”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “War / Iran” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “War / Iran” next time?
- 25%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘War / Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/iran-or-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=iran%20%2F%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP