# Kevin Warsh (kevin-warsh) · speech 2026-05-22 · 24 words · P p:what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-his-swearing-in · as_of 2026-10-27T09:54:12Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-22 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-his-swearing-in (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh says the listed term during his swearing-in ceremony scheduled for May 22, 2026.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	1	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	yes
Interest rate	interest rate	1	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
America / American 2+ times	america|american#2	2	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Bernanke / Yellen / Powell	bernanke|powell|yellen	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Central bank	central bank	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Challenge	challenge	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
China	china	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Congress	congress	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Economy / Economics / Economic 3+ times	economic|economy#3	3	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Employment 2+ times	employment#2	2	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Fed	fed	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Federal Reserve 10+ times	federal reserve#10	10	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Federal Reserve 5+ times	federal reserve#5	5	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Governor	governor	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Honor	honor	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Independence / Independent	independence|independent	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Job	job	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Stability	stability	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Unemployment	unemployment	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
War / Iran	iran|war	1	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Wife / Family	family|wife	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes