# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-10-20 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT20 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-20 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT20 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Democrat	democrat	1	54	43	0.8	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.75	yes
Biden	biden	1	71	50	0.7	YYYYYYYnYY	5	4	0.69	no
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	1	12	8	0.67	YnYYYnYYYn	5	2	0.59	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	18	12	0.67	YnnYYnYnYY	5	2	0.58	no
Fraud	fraud	1	50	29	0.58	YYnYYnYYYn	5	3	0.57	yes
Taxpayer	taxpayer	1	4	3	0.75	YYnY	5	4	0.54	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	52	28	0.54	YYnnYnYYnY	5	3	0.54	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	40	19	0.47	YYnYYnnnnY	5	3	0.52	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	16	8	0.5	nnnYYYYYnn	5	4	0.43	no
American Dream	american dream	1	39	20	0.51	YnnYnnnYnn	5	0	0.41	no
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	5	0	0.36	no
Midterm	midterm	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	5	1	0.36	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	25	9	0.36	nnYYYYnnYn	5	1	0.35	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	11	2	0.18	YnnnYnnnnn	5	2	0.24	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	18	3	0.17	nnYnnnYnnn	5	1	0.23	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	58	10	0.17	nYnnnnnnYn	5	3	0.19	no
America First	america first	1	50	7	0.14	nYnnnnYnnn	5	0	0.19	no