# JD Vance (jd-vance) · speech 2026-01-24 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JAN24 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:20:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-24 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JAN24 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks at March for Life, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	14	12	0.86	YYYYYYnYYY	2	2	0.71	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	7	6	0.86	YnYYYYY	2	2	0.67	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	2	2	1	YY	2	1	0.61	hist	yes
Greenland	greenland	2	2	1	YY	2	1	0.61	hist	no
Family	family	2	2	1	YY	2	1	0.59	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	7	5	0.71	YYYnYnY	2	2	0.57	hist	no
Pregnant / Pregnancy	pregnancy|pregnant	0	0			2	0	0.55	hist	no
Abortion	abortion	2	2	1	YY	2	0	0.54	hist	yes
National Security	national security	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	0	0.46	hist	no
Terrorist / Narcoterrorist	narcoterrorist|terrorist	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.38	hist	no
America First	america first	10	3	0.3	nYnnnYYnnn	2	0	0.34	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.17	hist	no
Adopted / Adoption	adopted|adoption	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior	yes
Pro Choice	pro choice	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior	no
Roe / Wade	roe|wade	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior	yes
Unborn	unborn	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior	yes