Will JD Vance say “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Terrorist / Narcoterrorist
- Probability
- 32% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…work of our troops, we would have had an energy crisis because the Iranians refused to stop acting like terrorists in the Strait of Hormuz.
…we're going to be able to see if they try to fund terrorist organizations, we're going to be able to see that. But you said…
…I don't want them to inherit a world where 20 additional regimes, half of them very dangerous and very sympathetic to terrorists have nuclear weapons.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Terrorist / Narcoterrorist” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Terrorist / Narcoterrorist’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/narcoterrorist-or-terrorist (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=narcoterrorist%20%2F%20terrorist · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP