# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-04-13 · 19 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26APR13 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:30:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-13 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26APR13 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Special Report , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	17	13	0.76	YnYYYYYnYn	2	2	0.64	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	10	4	0.4	nYYnnYnnYn	2	1	0.45	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	12	7	0.58	YnYYnnYnYn	2	1	0.44	hist	no
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	0	0.43	hist	yes
Settle / Deal	deal|settle	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	0	0.43	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	10	4	0.4	YnnYnnnnYY	2	1	0.39	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	5	2	0.4	nnYYn	2	0	0.39	hist	yes
Hegseth	hegseth	1	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.37	hist	no
Uranium	uranium	1	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.32	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	8	2	0.25	nnnYnnYn	2	0	0.31	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	5	1	0.2	nnnYn	2	0	0.3	hist	yes
21 Hour	21 hour	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes
Jared / Kushner	jared|kushner	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes
Orban	orban	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes
Pakistan	pakistan	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes
Pope	pope	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes
Qatar	qatar	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no
Steve / Witkoff	steve|witkoff	1	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	yes