# JD Vance (jd-vance) · speech 2026-04-01 · 18 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26APR01 · as_of 2026-10-24T09:13:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-01 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 speech transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26APR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Swearing-In Ceremony Of Colin McDonald, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Biden	biden	25	20	0.8	YYnYnYYnYY	2	2	0.7	no
Democrat	democrat	15	12	0.8	YYYnYYYYYn	2	2	0.64	yes
California	california	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	2	1	0.58	no
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	4	3	0.75	YYnY	2	1	0.57	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	7	5	0.71	YYYYnnY	2	1	0.56	no
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	3	2	0.67	YnY	2	0	0.53	no
Border	border	8	5	0.62	nYnYYYYn	2	1	0.51	no
Iran	iran	7	3	0.43	YnnYnYn	2	0	0.43	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	7	3	0.43	nYYnnYn	2	1	0.43	no
Learing	learing	3	1	0.33	Ynn	2	0	0.39	no
Healthcare	healthcare	15	5	0.33	YYnnnYnYnn	2	1	0.37	no
Daycare	daycare	1	0	0	n	2	1	0.37	no
Newsom	newsom	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.37	no
TSA	tsa	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.37	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	9	3	0.33	YYYnnnnnn	2	1	0.35	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	7	2	0.29	YnnYnnn	2	1	0.34	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	5	1	0.2	nnnYn	2	0	0.33	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	16	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	2	1	0.19	no