# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-10-14 · 18 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT14 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:28:41Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-14 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT14 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Speech in Israel on October 13th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	65	53	0.82	YYYYnYYYYn	0.75	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	37	26	0.7	YYnYYYnYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	21	14	0.67	nYYYYnYYYY	0.59	hist	yes
NATO	nato	1	30	14	0.47	YnYYYnnnYY	0.53	hist	no
Military	military	1	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
Terrorist	terrorist	1	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.52	hist	yes
Gaza	gaza	1	14	4	0.29	nnYnnnnnnY	0.5	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	21	12	0.57	YYnYnYnnnn	0.49	hist	yes
October 7	october 7	1	1	0	0	n	0.48	hist	yes
Golden Dome	golden dome	1	9	4	0.44	YYYnnnnnY	0.46	hist	no
Negotiate	negotiate	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	yes
World War	world war	1	6	2	0.33	nYnnnY	0.41	hist	yes
Palestine	palestine	1	9	1	0.11	nnnYnnnnn	0.31	hist	no
Drone	drone	1	14	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.28	hist	no
Hamas (3+ times)	hama#3	3	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Heinous	heinous	1	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Hostage (3+ times)	hostage#3	3	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Peace (3+ times)	peace#3	3	0	0			0.49	prior	yes