Will “Risk” be said on Survivor next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Risk” was said on Survivor in 3 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (20%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

32%from settlement history only · n=15counts: contestants (not the host)
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
contestants (not the host)
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=risk

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Survivor

Risk

Probability
32% · n=15
Settled
3/15 (20%)

Next listing counts: contestants (not the host)

We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the contestants say during Survivor Season 50 Finale? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Season 50 Finale? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 12? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 12? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 10? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 10? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 9? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 9? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 15 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 21, 2026RiskKalshiNo
May 14, 2026RiskKalshiYes
May 13, 2026RiskKalshiNo
Dec 18, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Dec 11, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Nov 27, 2025RiskKalshiYes
Nov 20, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Nov 13, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Nov 6, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Oct 30, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Oct 23, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Oct 16, 2025RiskKalshiNo
Oct 8, 2025RiskKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2025RiskKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Risk” said on Survivor?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Risk” was said on Survivor in 3 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (20%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
What is the probability “Risk” is said on Survivor next time?
32%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: contestants (not the host).

Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Risk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/risk (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=risk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP