# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-05-13 · 23 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY13 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:44:54Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-05-13 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY13 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 12 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safe / Safety	safe|safety	8	7	0.88	YnYYYYYY	0.69	hist	yes
Strategy / Strategize / Strategic	strategic|strategize|strategy	3	3	1	YYY	0.63	hist	yes
Tie / Tied	tie|tied	8	6	0.75	YnYYnYYY	0.63	hist	yes
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	14	6	0.43	nnnnYYYYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Alliance	alliance	32	12	0.38	nYnYnYnYYY	0.58	hist	no
Fire	fire	22	14	0.64	nYnYYYYYYn	0.56	hist	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	22	10	0.45	nnYnnYnnYY	0.49	hist	no
Drop / Dropped	drop|dropped	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.48	hist	yes
Record / Longest	longest|record	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.48	hist	no
Water	water	12	6	0.5	YnYYnnnYnY	0.46	hist	no
Key	key	21	9	0.43	YYYYnYnnYn	0.42	hist	no
Puzzle	puzzle	22	9	0.41	nYYnnYYnnn	0.35	hist	yes
Journey	journey	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.35	hist	no
Sit Out	sit out	9	3	0.33	nYYnnnYnn	0.32	hist	no
Trust	trust	23	4	0.17	nnnnnnnnnY	0.31	hist	no
Fallon	fallon	8	2	0.25	nnYYnnnn	0.28	hist	no
Rope	rope	8	2	0.25	nYnYnnnn	0.27	hist	yes
Risk	risk	12	2	0.17	nnnnnnYnnn	0.27	hist	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	18	2	0.11	nnnnYnnnnn	0.22	hist	yes
Dig Deep	dig deep	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	22	1	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Full Tilt Boogie	full tilt boogie	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Race	race	0	0			0.41	prior	yes