Will “Tie / Tied” be said on Survivor next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tie / Tied” was said on Survivor in 8 of 10 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 27, 2025 (80%), most recently on May 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
65%from settlement history only · n=10counts: the host
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- the host
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Survivor
Tie / Tied
- Probability
- 65% · n=10
- Settled
- 8/10 (80%)
Next listing counts: the host
We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Tie / Tied |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 13, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 6, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Tie / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Tie / Ties / Tied | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Tie / Ties / Tied | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Tie / Tied” said on Survivor?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tie / Tied” was said on Survivor in 8 of 10 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 27, 2025 (80%), most recently on May 20, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tie / Tied” is said on Survivor next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: the host.
Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Tie / Tied’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/tie-or-tied (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=tie%20%2F%20tied · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP