Will “Water” be said on Survivor next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Water” was said on Survivor in 6 of 13 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 27, 2025 (46%), most recently on May 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

41%from settlement history only · n=13counts: the host
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no no yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
the host
Export

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API

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GET /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=water

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Survivor

Water

Probability
41% · n=13
Settled
6/13 (46%)

Next listing counts: the host

We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the contestants say during Survivor Season 50 Finale? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Season 50 Finale? · not listed

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What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 12? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 12? · settled no

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What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · settled yes

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What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 10? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 10? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 9? · not listed

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What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 9? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 13, 2026WaterKalshiNo
May 6, 2026WaterKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026WaterKalshiNo
Apr 22, 2026WaterKalshiYes
Apr 15, 2026WaterKalshiNo
Apr 8, 2026WaterKalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026WaterKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026WaterKalshiYes
Mar 18, 2026WaterKalshiYes
Mar 12, 2026WaterKalshiNo
Mar 5, 2026WaterKalshiYes
Feb 26, 2026WaterKalshiYes
Nov 27, 2025WaterKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Water” said on Survivor?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Water” was said on Survivor in 6 of 13 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 27, 2025 (46%), most recently on May 6, 2026.
What is the probability “Water” is said on Survivor next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: the host.

Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Water’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/water (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=water · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP