White House press briefing, Dec 22, 2025
Kalshi Will the White House Press Secretary say Tulsi/Gabbard at her next press briefing?
Markets
18 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: role: press secretary Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | No | 55%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 51%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Paper Straw | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial intelligence | No | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Elon/Musk | No | 45%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tulsi/Gabbard | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 42%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Super Bowl | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Egg | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Cryptocurrency/Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Eric Adams | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSECPRESSMENTION-25DEC31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP