Will Gavin Newsom say “Mental Health”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Mental Health” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (83%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Mental Health
- Probability
- 66% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Mental Health |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Mental Health | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mental Health | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Mental Health | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Mental Health | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Mental Health | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Mental Health”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Mental Health” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (83%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Mental Health” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Mental Health’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/mental-health (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=mental%20health · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP