Will Gavin Newsom say “Corrupt / Corruption”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Corrupt / Corruption” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 13, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

49%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=corrupt%20%2F%20corruption

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Gavin Newsom

Corrupt / Corruption

Probability
49% · n=6
Settled
3/6 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

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Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 27, 2026Corrupt / CorruptionKalshiNo
May 19, 2026Corrupt / CorruptionKalshiYes
May 14, 2026Corrupt / CorruptionKalshiYes
Apr 2, 2026Corrupt / CorruptionKalshiNo
Jan 23, 2026Corrupt / CorruptionKalshiYes
Dec 13, 2025Corrupt / CorruptionKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Gavin Newsom say “Corrupt / Corruption”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Corrupt / Corruption” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 13, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 19, 2026.
What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Corrupt / Corruption” next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Corrupt / Corruption’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/corrupt-or-corruption (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=corrupt%20%2F%20corruption · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP