# Gavin Newsom (gavin-newsom) · presser 2026-04-02 · 15 words · K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26APR02 · as_of 2026-10-25T10:40:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-02 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26APR02 ({word} = w of K rows): If Gavin Newsom says {word} as part of Press Conference on April 2nd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p
Trump	trump	16	13	0.81	YnYYYnYYYY	0.7
Mental Health	mental health	4	4	1	YYYY	0.68
Safe / Safer / Safety	safe|safer|safety	4	4	1	YYYY	0.66
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	6	5	0.83	YYYYYn	0.56
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	1	Y	0.55
Democracy	democracy	15	8	0.53	YYnYnYnYnn	0.46
Budget / Deficit	budget|deficit	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.46
Election	election	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.46
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	2	1	0.5	nY	0.45
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.41
Republican	republican	9	4	0.44	nnYYYnYnn	0.4
Fraud	fraud	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.37
Education	education	1	0	0	n	0.35
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	13	3	0.23	nnnnYnYnYn	0.31
Iran	iran	3	0	0	nnn	0.25