Will Gavin Newsom say “Budget / Deficit”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Budget / Deficit” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (40%), most recently on Mar 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Budget / Deficit
- Probability
- 36% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Budget / Deficit |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Budget / Deficit”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Budget / Deficit” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (40%), most recently on Mar 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Budget / Deficit” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Budget / Deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/budget-or-deficit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=budget%20%2F%20deficit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP