# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · presser 2026-03-13 · 14 words · K k:KXMENTION-HEGS26MAR13 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:20:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-13 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-HEGS26MAR13 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Press Conference on March 13th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.69	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	0.61	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.54	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.54	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.47	hist	no
Hezbollah	hezbollah	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.4	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.4	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.38	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.38	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.37	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	3	0	0	nnn	0.27	hist	yes
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.24	hist	no
School	school	1	0	0			0.44	prior	no
Tomahawk	tomahawk	1	0	0			0.44	prior	no