Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jan 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Roundtable meeting?
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | Yes | 76%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ethnic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hochul / Governor | Yes | 31%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 24%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 21%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Race / Racist / Racism | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| New Era | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Advisory | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plow / Plowing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Remote | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Snow Day | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NYPD | No | 29%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | 25%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Blizzard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JAN24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP