What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Race / Racism / Racist” next time?

32%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Race / Racism / Racist”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Race / Racism / Racist” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Race / Racism / Racist” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (25%), most recently on Jan 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

32%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 11:00 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Race / Racism / Racist

Probability: 32% · n=4
Settled: 1/4 (25%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…hard for anyone to keep up with all of the bigotry and racism that Bruce Blakeman exhibits on a regular basis. So, I think that…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…city. In 1969, we watched in wonder as our country won the race to the moon, only slightly resentful that Buzz Aldrin had grown up…