What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Trump (3+ times)” next time?

41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Trump” 3+ times?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Trump (3+ times)” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (67%), most recently on Oct 27, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 0.

41%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 23:11 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Trump (3+ times)

Probability: 41% · n=3
Settled: 2/3 (67%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

But I did have one more follow-up question about this, because President Trump has also followed this model that the city seems to be following,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…the past two hours, I have been on the phone with President Trump and Secretary Mullin negotiating the release of the man ICE agents shot.…