What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?

26%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Shutdown / Shut Down” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

26%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
Streak: not said the last 3 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 21:40 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability: 26% · n=3
Settled: 0/3 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Walter J. McNeil, President, Edenwald Houses Tenant AssociationotherMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

Twenty-five years ago, they shut down the senior center. When COVID virus hit, the seniors were locked in their apartments. You know, a lot of…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.