What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Homeless” next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Homeless”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Homeless” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Homeless” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (67%), most recently on Oct 28, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

45%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 07:22 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Homeless

Probability: 45% · n=3
Settled: 2/3 (67%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Council Member Lincoln RestlerotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…capacity at our human services agencies to be able to process bigger contracts for homeless services shelters, with cultural organizations, et cetera, much more quickly.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.