Zohran Mamdani: Speech, Nov 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his post election speech?
Markets
12 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Five Boroughs | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Islamophobia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NYPD / Police | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Promise | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Queens | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Doubt / Doubted | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kathy / Hochul | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bernie / Sanders | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Free Bus | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inequality | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-25NOV30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP