What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Doubt / Doubted” next time?

49%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Doubt / Doubted”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Doubt / Doubted” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Doubt / Doubted” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 5, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

49%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 19:15 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Doubt / Doubted

Probability: 49% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

You know, Walter said it earlier, but the best response to doubt and critique are the results you can deliver. The very people who were…

Council Member Linda LeeotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…Council member or being a CEO of a nonprofit? And without a doubt, my answer was CEO of a nonprofit organization because I cannot tell…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.