What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “NYPD / Police” next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “NYPD / Police”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “NYPD / Police” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “NYPD / Police” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 5, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.

45%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 09:04 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

NYPD / Police

Probability: 45% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…the public advocate said earlier, which is that we have asked our police officers to respond to every failure of the social safety net across…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…fair thing to do in this campaign, especially since this is a governor who committed a lot of money for police safety on the MTA?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…are no plans to change that, whether it's with respect to the police commissioner as well as with respect to any other leaders, agencies and…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

…It is a solemn privilege to be here alongside Commissioner Tisch and NYPD leadership as we remember 42 members of the New York City Police…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

I have a question about NYPD enforcement. We asked them recently why their moving violations against car drivers have plummeted by 41 percent since 2021,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.