Will Zohran Mamdani say “Promise”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Promise” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 5, 2025.
Of the last 2 speeches we have transcripts for (Apr 12, 2026 – Jun 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
Promise
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 speeches
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…here as well is what their vision is for this development, the promises they have made here at this development to NYCHA residents. And what…
…all here on this momentous occasion. Today is about delivering on a promise that every New Yorker deserves to be safe in their neighborhood, and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
And a quick off-topic — it's easy, I promise. Did you watch the debate last night, and do you expect to hear more of your…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…these names have always meant everything. By placing them here, we make a promise that they will mean something to generations of New Yorkers, too.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Translation: What do you think is the biggest promise you've made that you haven't yet fulfilled, and that New Yorkers should be watching for and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | Promise |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “Promise”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Promise” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 5, 2025.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Promise” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘Promise’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/promise (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=promise · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP