Tom Homan: Panel, Mar 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Tom Homan say during his CPAC Fireside Chat?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Body Camera / Body Cam | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOMANMENTION-26MAR26B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP