Will Tom Homan say “Fentanyl”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Tom Homan said “Fentanyl” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

41%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Tom Homan

Fentanyl

Probability
41% · n=6
Settled
2/6 (33%)
Last 2 transcripts
said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: Saturday in America? · settled no

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? · settled no

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What will Tom Homan say during the Turning Point Tour? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · settled no

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What will Tom Homan say during his CPAC Fireside Chat? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during his Press Conference? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Aug 22, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Aug 16, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–
Jul 19, 2026FentanylKalshiNo0
Jun 6, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Apr 22, 2026FentanylKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Mar 29, 2026FentanylKalshiNo–
Mar 26, 2026FentanylKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Tom Homan say “Fentanyl”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Tom Homan said “Fentanyl” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 16, 2026.
What is the probability Tom Homan says “Fentanyl” next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Fentanyl’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/fentanyl (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=fentanyl · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP