Will Tom Homan say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (100%), most recently on Mar 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tom Homan
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 59% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (2 episodes); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…everybody in ICE would have a camera now if the government wasn't shut down by Democratic members of Congress. There was money in that bill…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Tom Homan say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (100%), most recently on Mar 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Tom Homan says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP