Tom Homan: Interview, Jan 31, 2026

Sat, Jan 31InterviewHistory onlyTom Homan

Updated

Markets

14 words · 5 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Border Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Crime / Criminal Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Protest / Protester Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Trump Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Walz / Frey Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Gun / Armed No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Illegal Alien No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Obstruct / Obstructing / Obstruction No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Peace / Peaceful No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Sanctuary No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Violent / Violence No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Biden No–new new word, no probability yet–
Body Cam / Body Camera No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Bovino No–n=1 too little history for a probability–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOMANMENTION-26JAN31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP