Will Tom Homan say “Violent / Violence”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Tom Homan said “Violent / Violence” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tom Homan
Violent / Violence
- Probability
- 41% · n=6
- Settled
- 3/6 (50%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (2 episodes); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Any violence is to be condemned, no excuses, no explanations, OK? So, if the CNN crew was attacked, that needs to be condemned. And I'm…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Violent / Violence |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Violent / Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Violent / Violence | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Violent / Violence | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Violent / Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Violent / Violence | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Tom Homan say “Violent / Violence”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Tom Homan said “Violent / Violence” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Tom Homan says “Violent / Violence” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Violent / Violence’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/violence-or-violent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=violence%20%2F%20violent · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP