Will Tom Homan say “Crime / Criminal”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Tom Homan said “Crime / Criminal” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tom Homan
Crime / Criminal
- Probability
- 67% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (2 episodes); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is zero, and that's appropriate, because not only have they committed no crime. They've actually acted heroically and patriotically to support and facilitate our democracy…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Crime / Criminal |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Crime / Criminal | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Tom Homan say “Crime / Criminal”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Tom Homan said “Crime / Criminal” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Tom Homan says “Crime / Criminal” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Crime / Criminal’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/crime-or-criminal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=crime%20%2F%20criminal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP