Will Tom Homan say “Border”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Border” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 71% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

71%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=border

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Tom Homan

Border

Probability
71% · n=4
Settled
4/4 (100%)
Last 2 episodes
said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: Saturday in America? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.

Tom HomanguestIn transcript

I'm not in the loop on that. I'm the White House border czar. So, they'd be a question for Markwayne Mullin. I'm not in the…

MARGARET BRENNANhostIn transcript

…Kathy Hochul on her state's new data center moratorium, and White House border czar Tom Homan on growing scrutiny of ICE operations. And, finally: Is…

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

Every match in the transcript

What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during the Turning Point Tour? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during his CPAC Fireside Chat? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during his Press Conference? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jul 19, 2026BorderKalshiYes1
Feb 5, 2026BorderKalshiYes–
Jan 31, 2026BorderKalshiYes–
Jan 30, 2026BorderKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Tom Homan say “Border”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Border” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 19, 2026.
What is the probability Tom Homan says “Border” next time?
71%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/border (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=border · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP