Will Tom Homan say “Gun / Armed”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Tom Homan said “Gun / Armed” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (40%), most recently on Feb 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

41%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Tom Homan

Gun / Armed

Probability
41% · n=5
Settled
2/5 (40%)
Last 2 episodes
said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

MARGARET BRENNANhostFace the Nation (CBS), July 19, 2026 · Jul 19, 2026In transcript

Under federal law, armed agents are not supposed to be at election centers. The attorney general nominee, Todd Blanche, said he'd follow the law. But…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

AMBASSADOR MICHAEL LEITERotherFace the Nation (CBS), July 12, 2026 · Jul 12, 2026In transcript

No, it's not delayed. We're working together with CENTCOM and the Lebanese Armed Forces to create the conditions so that we can actually move into…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: Saturday in America? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during the Turning Point Tour? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during his CPAC Fireside Chat? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · settled no

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What will Tom Homan say during his Press Conference? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Feb 16, 2026Gun / ArmedKalshiNo
Feb 13, 2026Gun / ArmedKalshiNo
Feb 5, 2026Gun / ArmedKalshiYes
Jan 31, 2026Gun / ArmedKalshiNo
Jan 30, 2026Gun / ArmedKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Tom Homan say “Gun / Armed”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Tom Homan said “Gun / Armed” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (40%), most recently on Feb 4, 2026.
What is the probability Tom Homan says “Gun / Armed” next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Gun / Armed’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/armed-or-gun (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=armed%20%2F%20gun · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP