Will Tom Homan say “Walz / Frey”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Walz / Frey” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (80%), most recently on Feb 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tom Homan
Walz / Frey
- Probability
- 55% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Walz / Frey |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Walz / Frey | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Walz / Frey | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Walz / Frey | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Walz / Frey | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Tom Homan say “Walz / Frey”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Walz / Frey” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (80%), most recently on Feb 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Tom Homan says “Walz / Frey” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Walz / Frey’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/frey-or-walz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=frey%20%2F%20walz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP