Will Tom Homan say “Illegal Alien”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Illegal Alien” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (80%), most recently on Feb 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

60%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Tom Homan

Illegal Alien

Probability
60% · n=5
Settled
4/5 (80%)
Last 2 episodes
said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: Saturday in America? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during the Turning Point Tour? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during his CPAC Fireside Chat? · not listed

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Tom Homan say during his Press Conference? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Feb 16, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes
Feb 13, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes
Feb 5, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes
Jan 31, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo
Jan 30, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Tom Homan say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Tom Homan said “Illegal Alien” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (80%), most recently on Feb 15, 2026.
What is the probability Tom Homan says “Illegal Alien” next time?
60%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Tom Homan: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tom-homan/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tom-homan&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tom-homan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP