# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · briefing 2026-05-05 · 17 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY05 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:31:34Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-05 · tn/th blank: no briefing transcripts yet · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Press Briefing on May 5th , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	10	10	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.7	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	10	7	0.7	nnYYnYYYYY	0.6	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	9	6	0.67	nnnYYYYYY	0.59	yes
Lethal	lethal	1	2	2	1	YY	0.58	no
Drone	drone	1	12	9	0.75	YYYYYYYYnY	0.57	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	9	6	0.67	YnYnYnYYY	0.56	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	1	1	1	Y	0.51	yes
Civilian	civilian	1	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.47	yes
America First	america first	1	10	5	0.5	YnnYYYYnnn	0.37	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	9	4	0.44	nYnYnYnnY	0.37	yes
Oil	oil	1	10	4	0.4	YnYnnnYnnY	0.35	no
Maduro	maduro	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	no
Phelan	phelan	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	no
Uranium	uranium	1	1	0	0	n	0.3	no
Fake News	fake new	1	11	3	0.27	YnnYnnnYnn	0.29	no
Pakistan	pakistan	1	2	0	0	nn	0.24	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	9	1	0.11	nnnnnYnnn	0.18	no